Back on the AGIFORS Stage: Tackling Price Endogeneity in Revenue Management Models

AGIFORS (the Airline Group of the International Federation of Operational Research Societies) is a global community of airline professionals and academics committed to solving the industry’s most pressing challenges through research and analytics. The organisation hosts events where members exchange innovations, academic insights, and success stories across a range of focus areas—from airline operations and crew management to scheduling and revenue management (RM).

This year, the AGIFORS Revenue Management Group will convene in Warsaw, 28 – 30 April, bringing together thought leaders to discuss topics such as revenue optimsation, demand forecasting, choice modeling, dynamic pricing and distribution.

Building on the momentum of Dr. Chris Nauerz and Paolo Gorgi’s highly regarded 2024 presentation, “Enhancing Airline RM Measurement Capabilities Through Rigorous and Disciplined Experimentation,” ADC Consulting again returns to the AGIFORS stage in 2025. Out of a record number of submissions, a technical presentation by Marc Nientker titled “Estimating Willingness-to-Pay Under Unobserved Confounders,” has been selected as one of just 28 to feature in the final program.

Marc will explore how the shift from class-based to dynamic, continuous pricing raises the stakes for accurately estimating willingness-to-pay (WTP). As pricing becomes increasingly granular and data-driven, pricing and revenue management (PRM) professionals must confront the challenge of unobserved confounders—hidden variables that distort causal relationships and lead to biased WTP estimates. His presentation introduces a novel, validated methodology designed to overcome these limitations. The method enables airlines to refine their pricing strategies while accounting for the complex realities of modern airline retailing.

Their 2025 talk draws inspiration from Dr. Stacey Mumbower’s prize-winning 2024 presentation, “Price Endogeneity in Demand Models for Revenue Management.” In this presentation Dr. Mumbower, Assistant Professor of Management and Technology at Embry‑Riddle Aeronautical University, examined how price endogeneity can mislead demand estimates and put forward two strategies to mitigate this issue. Her talk also highlighted emerging alternatives in the literature and pointed to promising areas for future research.

Planning to attend AGIFORS 2025 in Warsaw? Be sure to book time with the ADC Consulting team. Just click the button below to schedule your meeting. If you can’t make the event, don’t worry. Reach out to Vladimir Antsibor (Head of Business Development) and we will arrange a 1:1 meeting to synthesise insights for you and your team.